Climate Forecasting at the Leading Edge of Science
The World Climate Service Offers Two Industry Leading Products:
Forecasts and climate analysis tools providing guidance for 1-6 months into the future. The seasonal WCS subscription provides access to a comprehensive monthly report (including an East Asia Seasonal Forecast) as well as unique and interactive website tools such as model progression visualization and an index analog database. [Click Picture for More Information]
Forecasts and analysis tools focused on a 2-6 week forecast lead time. Subseasonal forecasting is an emerging field that has long been regarded as even more challenging than seasonal forecasting, and demand for actionable subseasonal climate forecast guidance is growing rapidly. [Click Picture for More Information]
We endeavor to provide the world’s most reliable, valuable, scientifically advanced climate forecasts and long-range weather intelligence for commodity trading desks and other entities. We strive for excellence in all aspects of our work.
The World Climate Service is unreservedly committed to ethical business practices and a transparent scientific approach to long-range seasonal climate forecasting.
The emerging field of seasonal and subseasonal climate forecasting demands ongoing research and development while refining existing techniques. The World Climate Service is known for an agile development process and rapid product roll-out.
- The World Climate Service avoids over-reliance on a single forecast tool or method. The complexity of the long-range forecast problem demands a broad suite of predictors and an intelligent system to extract predictability.
Probability and Confidence
- The World Climate Service provides and promotes information about forecast confidence and uncertainty. By embracing a probabilistic approach, WCS clients take advantage of high-probability “forecasts of opportunity”.
- The World Climate Service empowers user decision systems by providing automated data feeds. Quantitative forecasts of industry-specific variables allow clients to make weather-sensitive decisions with precision and confidence.
The WCS Team
We offer nearly 60 years of experience in seasonal forecasting
John A Dutton
News and Analysis from the World Climate Service
Energy meteorologists are busier than ever Energy traders around the world rely on their energy meteorologists to keep them on top of the weather and ahead of the market. Huge advances in long-range forecasting over the last decade mean that energy meteorologists are busier than ever (see here and here) attending to a wealth of[…]
In the United Kingdom, the weather is a critical concern for natural gas and electricity demand, and the UK energy industry relies on highly accurate forecasts to prepare for future demand and anticipate market price fluctuations. One of the key variables that allows the industry to understand and predict natural gas demand is a Composite[…]
Arctic sea ice has reached its seasonal minimum, and after a summer of exceptional warmth near the Russian coast, this year’s minimum ice extent is the second lowest on record. For only the second time in modern history, Arctic sea ice extent dropped below 4 million km2, but 2012 still holds the record for most[…]
Deterministic Weather Forecasting In 2020, the global energy industry depends on high-quality weather forecasts for critical decision making like never before. Over recent decades the application of these forecasts has expanded exponentially due to the rapid growth of renewable energy and the liberalization of energy markets. Short-range forecasts are now an essential tool in the[…]
North Pacific Warm SSTs One of the most striking and persistent climate anomalies of recent years has been the widespread unusual warmth that has affected the North Pacific Ocean. Beginning in summer 2013, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) became much warmer than normal between Alaska and Hawaii, and as the warm anomaly persisted and intensified over[…]
Introduction to Forecast Reliability In talking about the quality of weather forecasts, it is common to hear the words “reliable” or “unreliable” used in common parlance as well as in specialized and technical settings. It’s therefore worth considering what the notion of “reliability” means to different people, and how we use this notion in connection[…]
As the science of long-range forecasting matures, and evidence of real-world success accrues (see here and here), new applications of subseasonal and seasonal forecast information are emerging constantly. Traditionally, long-range forecasts for the energy industry have focused on expected variations in energy demand due to (mainly) temperature fluctuations, but energy supply is becoming more and[…]
East Asia Seasonal Forecast Verification In November 2018, the World Climate Service began issuing a subjective East Asia seasonal forecast, including China, Japan, the Koreas, India, and Indochina. While the WCS seasonal portal has always provided a comprehensive array of forecasts and analysis tools for the entire globe, the WCS monthly seasonal reports had previously[…]
Introduction Last year at about this time, the World Climate Service highlighted a new effort to develop a statistical forecast capability for the subseasonal time frame (weeks in advance), and last summer a new World Climate Service product was released. Since then, the statistical forecast scheme, known as Sub-R, has been delivering week 3-6 temperature[…]
The Arctic Oscillation was an important player in widespread Northern Hemisphere winter warmth, but the hemispheric temperature-AO relationship is not simple