East Asia Seasonal Forecast Verification: 18 Months Later

East Asia Seasonal Forecast Verification

In November 2018, the World Climate Service began issuing a subjective East Asia seasonal forecast, including China, Japan, the Koreas, India, and Indochina. While the WCS seasonal portal has always provided a comprehensive array of forecasts and analysis tools for the entire globe, the WCS monthly seasonal reports had previously been confined to North America and Europe, but there is rising interest and demand for expert analysis focused on East Asia.

The WCS East Asia seasonal forecast reports include discussion and analysis of key forecast signals, updated once per month, with a target forecast period of the subsequent three months (e.g. December-February for a report issued in November). Customers benefit from detailed expert opinion and a carefully crafted subjective summary, including risk factors and confidence levels, and taking into account a wide range of predictors.

A visual summary of the forecast is provided in subjective “fuzzy maps”, which show the regions in the domain where seasonal average temperature and total precipitation are expected to depart significantly from the 1981-2010 normal.

With 18 months of forecasts already completed, the level of success has been very encouraging, and the WCS believes the performance provides a strong argument for the value of the East Asia forecasts. A visual comparison of forecasts and verification is provided below for each of the major seasons since winter 2018-2019.

Contact us today to request a free trial of the World Climate Service and our East Asia seasonal forecast report.

Winter 2018-2019 – East Asia Seasonal Forecast

Spring 2019

Summer 2019

Autumn 2019

Winter 2019-2020

Spring 2020

Free trials of the World Climate Service are available. Request a seasonal forecast trial here.