Trends in Temperature Extremes

Commentary by Prescient Weather co-founder Richard James, Ph.D Introduction The winter of 2020-21 has produced a remarkable sequence of temperature extremes across the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Among the more notable events are the following: Cold developed in central and eastern Asia in December and culminated in Beijing’s lowest temperature for more than 50[…]

MJO Forecast and Stratospheric Warming: Impact of Extremes

Summary: Historical analogs point to the likely impacts of a weak stratospheric polar vortex and an amplified MJO forecast In a dramatic break with the pattern of recent years, this winter has seen strong and persistent high-latitude blocking that has produced unusual cold across most of Russia and East Asia. The Arctic Oscillation has been[…]

Extreme Siberian Warmth

Record Siberian Warmth in 2020

One of the most striking and memorable global climate stories of 2020 was the remarkable and persistent extreme warmth that occurred in Arctic Russia. The sheer magnitude of the anomaly for the annual mean temperature in north-central Siberia was simply astonishing: over 5 standard deviations above the 1981-2010 normal. The maps above (from the ERA5[…]

Arctic Amplification and Extreme Weather: Controversy Lingers

Commentary by Prescient Weather co-founder Richard James, Ph.D A recurring topic of interest and controversy among climate researchers is the potential connection between rapid Arctic warming and volatile or extreme weather in the mid-latitudes. The Arctic has warmed much faster than the rest of the globe – a phenomenon known as “Arctic amplification” – and[…]

ECMWF PNA Climate Index Forecast

World Climate Service: an indispensable toolkit for today’s Energy Meteorologist

Energy meteorologists are busier than ever Energy traders around the world rely on their energy meteorologists to keep them on top of the weather and ahead of the market. Huge advances in long-range forecasting over the last decade mean that energy meteorologists are busier than ever (see here and here) attending to a wealth of[…]