Climate Forecasting at the Leading Edge of Science
The World Climate Service Offers Two Industry Leading Products:
Forecasts and climate analysis tools providing guidance for 1-6 months into the future. The seasonal WCS subscription provides access to a comprehensive monthly report (including an East Asia Seasonal Forecast) as well as unique and interactive website tools such as model progression visualization and an index analog database. [Click Picture for More Information]
Forecasts and analysis tools focused on a 2-6 week forecast lead time. Subseasonal forecasting is an emerging field that has long been regarded as even more challenging than seasonal forecasting, and demand for actionable subseasonal climate forecast guidance is growing rapidly. [Click Picture for More Information]
We endeavor to provide the world’s most reliable, valuable, scientifically advanced climate forecasts and long-range weather intelligence for commodity trading desks and other entities. We strive for excellence in all aspects of our work.
The World Climate Service is unreservedly committed to ethical business practices and a transparent scientific approach to long-range seasonal climate forecasting.
The emerging field of seasonal and subseasonal climate forecasting demands ongoing research and development while refining existing techniques. The World Climate Service is known for an agile development process and rapid product roll-out.
- The World Climate Service avoids over-reliance on a single forecast tool or method. The complexity of the long-range forecast problem demands a broad suite of predictors and an intelligent system to extract predictability.
Probability and Confidence
- The World Climate Service provides and promotes information about forecast confidence and uncertainty. By embracing a probabilistic approach, WCS clients take advantage of high-probability “forecasts of opportunity”.
- The World Climate Service empowers user decision systems by providing automated data feeds. Quantitative forecasts of industry-specific variables allow clients to make weather-sensitive decisions with precision and confidence.
The WCS Team
We offer nearly 60 years of experience in seasonal forecasting
John A Dutton
News and Analysis from the World Climate Service
Energy meteorologists are busier than ever Energy traders around the world rely on their energy meteorologists to keep them on top of the weather and ahead of the market. Huge advances in long-range forecasting over the last decade mean that energy meteorologists are busier than ever (see here and here) attending to a wealth of[…]
In the United Kingdom, the weather is a critical concern for natural gas and electricity demand, and the UK energy industry relies on highly accurate forecasts to prepare for future demand and anticipate market price fluctuations. One of the key variables that allows the industry to understand and predict natural gas demand is a Composite[…]
Arctic sea ice has reached its seasonal minimum, and after a summer of exceptional warmth near the Russian coast, this year’s minimum ice extent is the second lowest on record. For only the second time in modern history, Arctic sea ice extent dropped below 4 million km2, but 2012 still holds the record for most[…]
Deterministic Weather Forecasting In 2020, the global energy industry depends on high-quality weather forecasts for critical decision making like never before. Over recent decades the application of these forecasts has expanded exponentially due to the rapid growth of renewable energy and the liberalization of energy markets. Short-range forecasts are now an essential tool in the[…]
North Pacific Warm SSTs One of the most striking and persistent climate anomalies of recent years has been the widespread unusual warmth that has affected the North Pacific Ocean. Beginning in summer 2013, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) became much warmer than normal between Alaska and Hawaii, and as the warm anomaly persisted and intensified over[…]
Introduction to Forecast Reliability In talking about the quality of weather forecasts, it is common to hear the words “reliable” or “unreliable” used in common parlance as well as in specialized and technical settings. It’s therefore worth considering what the notion of “reliability” means to different people, and how we use this notion in connection[…]
As the science of long-range forecasting matures, and evidence of real-world success accrues (see here and here), new applications of subseasonal and seasonal forecast information are emerging constantly. Traditionally, long-range forecasts for the energy industry have focused on expected variations in energy demand due to (mainly) temperature fluctuations, but energy supply is becoming more and[…]
East Asia Seasonal Forecast Verification In November 2018, the World Climate Service began issuing a subjective East Asia seasonal forecast, including China, Japan, the Koreas, India, and Indochina. While the WCS seasonal portal has always provided a comprehensive array of forecasts and analysis tools for the entire globe, the WCS monthly seasonal reports had previously[…]
Introduction Last year at about this time, the World Climate Service highlighted a new effort to develop a statistical forecast capability for the subseasonal time frame (weeks in advance), and last summer a new World Climate Service product was released. Since then, the statistical forecast scheme, known as Sub-R, has been delivering week 3-6 temperature[…]
The Arctic Oscillation was an important player in widespread Northern Hemisphere winter warmth, but the hemispheric temperature-AO relationship is not simple
Indian Ocean Dipole in 2019 The strongly positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) was one of the most striking features of global climate variability of 2019. The IOD is a mode of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability in the Indian Ocean, and it has strong impacts on climate anomalies in the surrounding areas and farther[…]
On November 18, the World Climate Service issued its seasonal forecast and discussion for winter (December-February) 2019-2020 in the U.S. and Europe. WCS seasonal outlooks include an overview of expected climate anomalies, key drivers, and risk factors for the upcoming three-month season, and our forecast document contains detailed discussion of available predictors, including dynamical model[…]
In an October 31 blog post, distinguished meteorologist Cliff Mass of the University of Washington commented on the degree of usefulness of long range forecasts, with the title, “Extended Forecasts Are Not Reliable“. Dr. Mass highlights the lack of deterministic skill of temperature and precipitation forecasts in the dynamical forecast models beyond two weeks and[…]
One of the core products that the World Climate Service delivers to customers is a once-a-month seasonal forecast report focused on expected climate conditions in the next three months in Europe and North America. The report includes a comprehensive discussion of factors that are likely to influence the seasonal climate, and the forecast is summarized[…]
The World Climate Service seasonal discussion and forecast for autumn was issued a few days ago, and as always the North Atlantic MSLP pattern featured heavily as an important consideration in the forecast, especially for Europe. Guidance from the leading seasonal dynamical models, including those provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, typically provides a[…]
In late July, an episode of extreme heat developed over western Europe for the second time in summer 2019, and the heat wave broke all-time high temperature records in several countries. Among these, the UK set a new high temperature record of 38.7°C (102°F) in Cambridge on July 25. As seen in the map below,[…]
US Bureau of Reclamation Press Release On March 7, 2019, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) announced the winners of their Subseasonal Climate Forecast Rodeo, which took place between April 2017 and April 2018. Prescient Weather participated in the contest and performed very well, ranking first for all categories combined and second in all but[…]
Introduction to Seasonal and Subseasonal Probabilistic Forecasts The probabilistic climate forecast is emerging as an important tool for weather-sensitive companies and organizations to gain value from long-range forecasts. The World Climate Service seasonal and subseasonal (S2S) weather forecasts emphasize probabilistic information, which is less intuitive but more powerful than the traditional style of deterministic short-term[…]
The World Climate Service uses a special technique called “calibration” to ensure the forecasts of probabilities of weather events are properly estimated. It’s a fairly complex technique that requires processing a significant amount of retrospective data from dynamical models such as the CFSv2 and the ECMWF. The subseasonal and seasonal dynamical model calibration methodology used[…]
Since 2006, the UN FAO has been using the World Climate Service to help protect food sources in regions vulnerable to desert locust outbreaks.
A recent article in the Wall Street Journal, quoting World Climate Service scientist Paul Knight, commented on the contradictory winter forecasts issued by two competing versions of the U.S. “Farmer’s Almanac”: https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-winter-be-nasty-or-nice-depends-which-farmers-almanac-you-read-11545929300 While the discussion is lighthearted, and some might say the forecasts themselves are not to be taken seriously, the article illustrates the popular[…]
Upgrade to World Climate Service Subseasonal Product The World Climate Service, an industry-leading provider of long-range weather and climate forecasts, announces the launch of a significant upgrade to its subseasonal forecast product. Subseasonal forecasts (3-6 weeks ahead) are increasingly sought after by weather-sensitive enterprises in diverse industry sectors. The product upgrade, released on December 11th,[…]
With the NAO turning negative as we enter an El Niño winter during solar minimum, should Europe expect a repeat of the cold winter of 2009-2010? Last week the World Climate Service released its updated forecast for the winter months of December through February. While the details of the forecast are restricted to customers[…]
Forecast Rodeo: World Climate Service Performs Well In April 2017, the US Bureau of Reclamation launched the Forecast Rodeo, a year-long realtime subseasonal climate forecasting competition. Contestants were asked to predict temperature and precipitation over the western half of the USA for lead times of 3-4 weeks and 5-6 weeks separately. The forecasts were issued[…]
A notable late winter cold outbreak over Europe was successfully anticipated by World Climate Service sub-seasonal forecast guidance. Beginning in early January, WCS sub-seasonal outlooks identified a threat of cold at some point in February, and the risk was more clearly defined in subsequent guidance; by early February, confidence was high that a prominent cold[…]
Prescient Weather was honored by the American Meteorological Society at its 2018 annual meeting in Austin, Texas. Prescient Weather, which operates the World Climate Service, was granted the 2018 award for outstanding services to meteorology by a corporation; the citation reads “For scientific creativity and technological innovation in transforming climate data, climate variability predictions, and[…]
The World Climate Service focuses on providing the best possible seasonal and subseasonal forecasts available. To that end, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has awarded a phase II SBIR grant to the World Climate Service. The goal of the SBIR is to fund the development of seasonal and subseasonal climate forecasts of industry-specific[…]