A Remarkable Analog: 2002

On November 18, the World Climate Service issued its seasonal forecast and discussion for winter (December-February) 2019-2020 in the U.S. and Europe. WCS seasonal outlooks include an overview of expected climate anomalies, key drivers, and risk factors for the upcoming three-month season, and our forecast document contains detailed discussion of available predictors, including dynamical model[…]

Making Sense of Long Range Forecasts

In an October 31 blog post, distinguished meteorologist Cliff Mass of the University of Washington commented on the degree of usefulness of long range forecasts, with the title, “Extended Forecasts Are Not Reliable“. Dr. Mass highlights the lack of deterministic skill of temperature and precipitation forecasts in the dynamical forecast models beyond two weeks and[…]

European Summer Forecast Success

One of the core products that the World Climate Service delivers to customers is a once-a-month seasonal forecast report focused on expected climate conditions in the next three months in Europe and North America. This includes a European summer forecast. The report includes a comprehensive discussion of factors that are likely to influence the seasonal[…]

Copernicus Climate Model Autumn MSLP Seasonal Forecasts

The World Climate Service seasonal discussion and forecast for autumn was issued a few days ago, and as always the North Atlantic MSLP pattern featured heavily as an important consideration in the forecast, especially for Europe. Guidance from the leading seasonal dynamical models, provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, typically provides a significant component[…]

Example Model Consistency Display

Ensemble Dynamical Forecast Model Calibration for Seasonal Climate Prediction

The World Climate Service uses a special technique called “calibration” to ensure the forecasts of probabilities of weather events are properly estimated. It’s a fairly complex technique that requires processing a significant amount of retrospective data from dynamical models such as the CFSv2 and the ECMWF. The subseasonal and seasonal dynamical model calibration methodology used[…]

Week 3 temperature probability forecast

Seasonal Forecasts – Who To Believe?

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal, quoting World Climate Service scientist Paul Knight, commented on the contradictory winter forecasts issued by two competing versions of the U.S. “Farmer’s Almanac”: https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-winter-be-nasty-or-nice-depends-which-farmers-almanac-you-read-11545929300 While the discussion is lighthearted, and some might say the forecasts themselves are not to be taken seriously, the article illustrates the popular[…]

August 2016 – New NOAA Phase II SBIR Award To Develop subseasonal forecasts

The World Climate Service focuses on provided the best possbile seasonal and subseasonal forecasts avaiable.  To that end, a the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has awarded a phase II SBIR grant to the World Climate Service.  The goal of the SBIR is to fund the development seasonal and subseasonal climate forecasts of industry-specific[…]