What Is Forecast Reliability?

Introduction to Forecast Reliability In talking about the quality of weather forecasts, it is common to hear the words “reliable” or “unreliable” used in common parlance as well as in specialized and technical settings. It’s therefore worth considering what the notion of “reliability” means to different people, and how we use this notion in connection[…]

Photo of a UK offshore wind farm

Probability Forecasts for UK Offshore Wind Farms

As the science of long-range forecasting matures, and evidence of real-world success accrues (see here and here), new applications of subseasonal and seasonal forecast information are emerging constantly. Traditionally, long-range forecasts for the energy industry have focused on expected variations in energy demand due to (mainly) temperature fluctuations, but energy supply is becoming more and[…]

East Asia Seasonal Forecast Verification: 18 Months Later

East Asia Seasonal Forecast Verification In November 2018, the World Climate Service began issuing a subjective East Asia seasonal forecast, including China, Japan, the Koreas, India, and Indochina. While the WCS seasonal portal has always provided a comprehensive array of forecasts and analysis tools for the entire globe, the WCS monthly seasonal reports had previously[…]

A Remarkable Analog: 2002

On November 18, the World Climate Service issued its seasonal forecast and discussion for winter (December-February) 2019-2020 in the U.S. and Europe. WCS seasonal outlooks include an overview of expected climate anomalies, key drivers, and risk factors for the upcoming three-month season, and our forecast document contains detailed discussion of available predictors, including dynamical model[…]

Making Sense of Long Range Forecasts

In an October 31 blog post, distinguished meteorologist Cliff Mass of the University of Washington commented on the degree of usefulness of long range forecasts, with the title, “Extended Forecasts Are Not Reliable“. Dr. Mass highlights the lack of deterministic skill of temperature and precipitation forecasts in the dynamical forecast models beyond two weeks and[…]

European Summer Forecast Success

One of the core products that the World Climate Service delivers to customers is a once-a-month seasonal forecast report focused on expected climate conditions in the next three months in Europe and North America. The report includes a comprehensive discussion of factors that are likely to influence the seasonal climate, and the forecast is summarized[…]

Copernicus Climate Model Autumn MSLP Seasonal Forecasts

The World Climate Service seasonal discussion and forecast for autumn was issued a few days ago, and as always the North Atlantic MSLP pattern featured heavily as an important consideration in the forecast, especially for Europe. Guidance from the leading seasonal dynamical models, including those provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, typically provides a[…]