In an October 31 blog post, distinguished meteorologist Cliff Mass of the University of Washington commented on the degree of usefulness of long range forecasts, with the title, “Extended Forecasts Are Not Reliable“. Dr. Mass highlights the lack of deterministic skill of temperature and precipitation forecasts in the dynamical forecast models beyond two weeks and[…]
US Bureau of Reclamation Press Release On March 7, 2019, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) announced the winners of their Subseasonal Climate Forecast Rodeo, which took place between April 2017 and April 2018. Prescient Weather participated in the contest and performed very well, ranking first for all categories combined and second in all but[…]
The World Climate Service uses a special technique called “calibration” to ensure the forecasts of probabilities of weather events are properly estimated. It’s a fairly complex technique that requires processing a significant amount of retrospective data from dynamical models such as the CFSv2 and the ECMWF. The subseasonal and seasonal dynamical model calibration methodology used[…]
Since 2006, the UN FAO has been using the World Climate Service to help protect food sources in regions vulnerable to desert locust outbreaks.
A recent article in the Wall Street Journal, quoting World Climate Service scientist Paul Knight, commented on the contradictory winter forecasts issued by two competing versions of the U.S. “Farmer’s Almanac”: https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-winter-be-nasty-or-nice-depends-which-farmers-almanac-you-read-11545929300 While the discussion is lighthearted, and some might say the forecasts themselves are not to be taken seriously, the article illustrates the popular[…]
Upgrade to World Climate Service Subseasonal Product The World Climate Service, an industry-leading provider of long-range weather and climate forecasts, announces the launch of a significant upgrade to its subseasonal forecast product. Subseasonal forecasts (3-6 weeks ahead) are increasingly sought after by weather-sensitive enterprises in diverse industry sectors. The product upgrade, released on December 11th,[…]
Forecast Rodeo: World Climate Service Performs Well In April 2017, the US Bureau of Reclamation launched the Forecast Rodeo, a year-long realtime subseasonal climate forecasting competition. Contestants were asked to predict temperature and precipitation over the western half of the USA for lead times of 3-4 weeks and 5-6 weeks separately. The forecasts were issued[…]
The World Climate Service focuses on provided the best possbile seasonal and subseasonal forecasts avaiable. To that end, a the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has awarded a phase II SBIR grant to the World Climate Service. The goal of the SBIR is to fund the development seasonal and subseasonal climate forecasts of industry-specific[…]