Photo of a UK offshore wind farm

Probability Forecasts for UK Offshore Wind Farms

As the science of long-range forecasting matures, and evidence of real-world success accrues (see here and here), new applications of subseasonal and seasonal forecast information are emerging constantly. Traditionally, long-range forecasts for the energy industry have focused on expected variations in energy demand due to (mainly) temperature fluctuations, but energy supply is becoming more and[…]

Making Sense of Long Range Forecasts

In an October 31 blog post, distinguished meteorologist Cliff Mass of the University of Washington commented on the degree of usefulness of long range forecasts, with the title, “Extended Forecasts Are Not Reliable“. Dr. Mass highlights the lack of deterministic skill of temperature and precipitation forecasts in the dynamical forecast models beyond two weeks and[…]