A Remarkable Analog: 2002

On November 18, the World Climate Service issued its seasonal forecast and discussion for winter (December-February) 2019-2020 in the U.S. and Europe. WCS seasonal outlooks include an overview of expected climate anomalies, key drivers, and risk factors for the upcoming three-month season, and our forecast document contains detailed discussion of available predictors, including dynamical model[…]

Making Sense of Long Range Forecasts

In an October 31 blog post, distinguished meteorologist Cliff Mass of the University of Washington commented on the degree of usefulness of long-range forecasts, with the title, “Extended Forecasts Are Not Reliable”. https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/10/extended-forecasts-are-not-reliable.html Dr. Mass highlights the lack of deterministic skill in the dynamical forecast models beyond two weeks and illustrates the problem of “poor[…]