Trends in Temperature Extremes

Commentary by Prescient Weather co-founder Richard James, Ph.D Introduction The winter of 2020-21 has produced a remarkable sequence of temperature extremes across the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Among the more notable events are the following: Cold developed in central and eastern Asia in December and culminated in Beijing’s lowest temperature for more than 50[…]

Extreme Siberian Warmth

Record Siberian Warmth in 2020

One of the most striking and memorable global climate stories of 2020 was the remarkable and persistent extreme warmth that occurred in Arctic Russia. The sheer magnitude of the anomaly for the annual mean temperature in north-central Siberia was simply astonishing: over 5 standard deviations above the 1981-2010 normal. The maps above (from the ERA5[…]

What is a long-range forecast?

Deterministic Weather Forecasting In 2020, the global energy industry depends on high-quality weather forecasts for critical decision making like never before. Over recent decades the application of these forecasts has expanded exponentially due to the rapid growth of renewable energy and the liberalization of energy markets. Short-range forecasts are now an essential tool in the[…]

East Asia Seasonal Forecast Verification: 18 Months Later

East Asia Seasonal Forecast Verification In November 2018, the World Climate Service began issuing a subjective East Asia seasonal forecast, including China, Japan, the Koreas, India, and Indochina. While the WCS seasonal portal has always provided a comprehensive array of forecasts and analysis tools for the entire globe, the WCS monthly seasonal reports had previously[…]

Statistical Forecasts in Action

Introduction Last year at about this time, the World Climate Service highlighted a new effort to develop a statistical forecast capability for the subseasonal time frame (weeks in advance), and last summer a new World Climate Service product was released. Since then, the statistical forecast scheme, known as Sub-R, has been delivering week 3-6 temperature[…]

What is a probabilistic climate forecast?

Introduction to Seasonal and Subseasonal Probabilistic Forecasts The probabilistic climate forecast is emerging as an important tool for weather-sensitive companies and organizations to gain value from long-range forecasts. The World Climate Service seasonal and subseasonal (S2S) weather forecasts emphasize probabilistic information, which is less intuitive but more powerful than the traditional style of deterministic short-term[…]

February 2018 – Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecast Success

A notable late winter cold outbreak over Europe was successfully anticipated by World Climate Service sub-seasonal forecast guidance.  Beginning in early January, WCS sub-seasonal outlooks identified a threat of cold at some point in February, and the risk was more clearly defined in subsequent guidance; by early February, confidence was high that a prominent cold[…]